With one week to go before the close of nominations, the latest tally of nominations for constituency representatives on Labour’s national executive are published, and Centre-Left candidates have 53% of all valid nominations (slightly down on 56% last year), Right-wing candidates 37% and the independents 10%.
The Centre-Left do in fact lead in almost every region, having 71% in the south-west, 61% in Wales, 60% in Yorkshire and 58% in the Northern region. Only in the West Midlands and the North West is it behind with 41% and 39% respectively. These figures include candidates on the basis indicated in the table below.
On the basis of the nominations and last year’s results, it look as if the Centre-Left is in a strong position to maintain its existing three seats and possibly win a fourth. Johanna Baxter who came seventh last year, but was elected when Oona King (elected on the Right-wing Progress slate) was ‘elevated’ to the House of Lords, is in a strong position to retain her seat although her attendance at large numbers of constituency meetings will count for rather less amongst the wider electorate than amongst the activists who determine nominations. Since the Centre-Left candidate with fewest nominations is expected to to withdraw, Peter Willsman is likely to somewhat better in the elections than his nominations suggest. Of the right-wing candidates, Luke Akehurst looks more likely to hang on to his seat than Peter Wheeler is to regain one, since Wheeler’s suport is so heavily concentrated in the North West region. However the race for the fifth and sixth places is still too close to call.
Nominations do not close until Friday 30 March 2012. Information on centre-left candidates is available here. The full details of nominations to date are as follows (last year’s position in nominations and 2010 nominations in brackets):
| 1 Ann Black (1) | Left | 205 (275) |
| 2 Christine Shawcroft (4) | Left | 124 (160) |
| 3 Ellie Reeves (3) | Right | 122 (182) |
| 4 Ken Livingstone (2) | Left | 119 (235) |
| 5 Johanna Baxter (6) | Independent | 108 (65) |
| 6 Luke Akehurst (8) | Right | 102 (82) |
| 7 Peter Willsman (5) | Left | 90 (137) |
| 8 Peter Wheeler (6) | Right | 86 (132) |
| 9 Kate Osamor (-) | Left | 59 |
| 10 Joanne Milligan (-) | Right | 50 |
| 11 Ruth Smeeth (-) | Right | 48 |
| 12 Darren Williams (-) | Left | 47 |
| 13 Florence Nosegbe (-) | Right | 44 |
| 14 Gary Heather (-) | Left | 33 |
| 15 Lewis Atkinson (-) | Independent | 22 |
| 16 Shukat Ali (13) | Right | 15 (52) |
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It looks like everyine from position 9 downward is out of the race. Akehurst and Baxter are seeing a sort of first term incumbency with their nominations tally already above 2010 totals. Livingstone is the one losing more nominations compared to 2010 and it’s not a surprise.
An interesting (but it takes much work to do) is comparing the electorates covered by the CLPs which nominated the various candidates
Andrea: Since I had them set up in spreadsheets, weighting nominations by CLP membership (2010 figures I’m afraid) wasn’t difficult. You get this revised order:
Ann Black 53,623
Ellie Reeves 34,127
Ken Livingstone 32,240
Christine Shawcroft 32,095
Joanne Baxter 28,896
Luke Akehurst 28,032
Peter Willsman 23,566
Peter Wheeler 22,457
Kate Osamor 15,479
Joanne Milligan 14,251
Florence Nosegbe 13,546
Ruth Smeath 13,003
Darren Williams 12,064
Gary Heather 9,454
Lewis Atkinson 6,360
Shaukat Ali 3,499
Many thanks Jon.
Not much difference except for minor changes in the Reeves/Livingstone/Shawcroft order (they are pretty close in terms of number of nominations anyway)