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Centre-Left have majority of nominations for party executive

With one week to go before the close of nominations, the latest tally of nominations for constituency representatives on Labour’s national executive are published, and Centre-Left candidates have 53% of all valid nominations (slightly down on 56% last year), Right-wing candidates 37% and the independents 10%.

The Centre-Left do in fact lead in almost every region, having 71% in the south-west, 61% in Wales, 60% in Yorkshire and 58% in the Northern region. Only in the West Midlands and the North West is it behind with 41% and 39% respectively. These figures include candidates on the basis indicated in the table below.

On the basis of the nominations and last year’s results, it look as if the Centre-Left is in a strong position to maintain its existing three seats and possibly win a fourth. Johanna Baxter who came seventh last year, but was elected when Oona King (elected on the Right-wing Progress slate) was ‘elevated’ to the House of Lords, is in a strong position to retain her seat although her attendance at large numbers of constituency meetings will count for rather less amongst the wider electorate than amongst the activists who determine nominations. Since the Centre-Left candidate with fewest nominations is expected to to withdraw, Peter Willsman is likely to somewhat better in the elections than his nominations suggest. Of the right-wing candidates, Luke Akehurst looks more likely to hang on to his seat than Peter Wheeler is to regain one, since Wheeler’s suport is so heavily concentrated in the North West region. However the race for the fifth and sixth places is still too close to call.

Nominations do not close until Friday 30 March 2012. Information on centre-left candidates is available here. The full details of nominations to date are as follows (last year’s position in nominations and 2010 nominations in brackets):

1  Ann Black (1) Left 205 (275)
2 Christine Shawcroft (4) Left 124 (160)
3 Ellie Reeves (3) Right 122 (182)
4 Ken Livingstone (2) Left 119 (235)
5  Johanna Baxter (6) Independent 108 (65)
6 Luke Akehurst (8) Right 102 (82)
7 Peter Willsman (5) Left 90 (137)
8  Peter Wheeler (6) Right 86 (132)
9  Kate Osamor (-) Left 59
10 Joanne Milligan (-) Right 50
11 Ruth Smeeth (-) Right 48
12 Darren Williams (-) Left 47
13 Florence Nosegbe (-) Right 44
14 Gary Heather (-) Left 33
15 Lewis Atkinson (-) Independent 22
16 Shukat Ali (13) Right 15 (52)

3 Comments

  1. Andrea says:

    It looks like everyine from position 9 downward is out of the race. Akehurst and Baxter are seeing a sort of first term incumbency with their nominations tally already above 2010 totals. Livingstone is the one losing more nominations compared to 2010 and it’s not a surprise.

    An interesting (but it takes much work to do) is comparing the electorates covered by the CLPs which nominated the various candidates

    1. Jon Lansman says:

      Andrea: Since I had them set up in spreadsheets, weighting nominations by CLP membership (2010 figures I’m afraid) wasn’t difficult. You get this revised order:

      Ann Black 53,623
      Ellie Reeves 34,127
      Ken Livingstone 32,240
      Christine Shawcroft 32,095
      Joanne Baxter 28,896
      Luke Akehurst 28,032
      Peter Willsman 23,566
      Peter Wheeler 22,457
      Kate Osamor 15,479
      Joanne Milligan 14,251
      Florence Nosegbe 13,546
      Ruth Smeath 13,003
      Darren Williams 12,064
      Gary Heather 9,454
      Lewis Atkinson 6,360
      Shaukat Ali 3,499

  2. Andrea says:

    Many thanks Jon.
    Not much difference except for minor changes in the Reeves/Livingstone/Shawcroft order (they are pretty close in terms of number of nominations anyway)

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