In the second week in which the latest tally of nominations for constituency representatives on Labour’s national executive are published, former party chair, Ann Black, has consolidated an unassailable lead. Three other candidates, Ken Livingstone and Christine Shawcroft from the centre-left slate and Ellie Reeves from the Right-wing Progress/Labour First slate have also pulled ahead. All four, all sitting members, on the basis of nominations, seem pretty certain to be elected.
The other two sitting members — independent Johanna Baxter, runner up last time until Oona King received a peerage, and right-winger, Luke Akehurst — are left contesting for the last two places with centre-left Peter Willsman and right-wing Peter Wheeler. Joanna Baxter is doing very much better in nominations than she did last time, which reflects the priority she has attached to visiting CLPs to report back, and she seems likely to retain 5th place in nominations. It is less certain that she will do as well in the election in which voters are much less likely to have met her than the activists who attend constituency meetings. The voters may also be less likely to be readers of Luke Akehurst’s tweets and blogs than the activists who attend nominating meetings. Peter Willsman and Peter Wheeler may therefore do better in votes than in nominations.
The other question to which an answer is emerging is which six of the seven centre-left candidates are likely to win the backing of centre-left organisations. It now seems likely that they will be those backed by the Campaign for Labour Party Democracy – Ann Black, Ken Livingstone, Kate Osamor, Christine Shawcroft, Darren Williams & Peter Willsman. Gary Heather is some way behind and, should he withdraw to focus on his campaign for the national policy forum in London, the backing of his supporters will Peter Willsman — two-thirds of those who have nominated Gary did not nominate Peter.
Nominations do not close until Friday 30 March 2012. Information on centre-left candidates is available here. The full details of nominations to date are as follows (last week’s position and 2010 nominations in brackets):
|1 Ann Black (1)||Left||84 (275)|
|2= Ken Livingstone (3)||Left||50 (235)|
|2= Ellie Reeves (2)||Right||50 (182)|
|4 Christine Shawcroft (4)||Left||49 (160)|
|5 Johanna Baxter (6)||Independent||40 (65)|
|6= Luke Akehurst (8)||Right||36 (82)|
|6= Peter Willsman (5)||Left||36 (137)|
|8 Peter Wheeler (7)||Right||35 (132)|
|9 Kate Osamor (9)||Left||27|
|10 Darren Williams (10)||Left||23|
|11 Florence Nosegbe (11)||Right||20|
|12 Ruth Smeeth (12)||Right||15|
|13 Joanne Milligan (13)||Right||14|
|14 Gary Heather (15)||Left||13|
|15 Lewis Atkinson (14)||Independent||12|
|16 Shukat Ali (16)||Right||5 (52)|