This general election is very interesting. Particularly Scotland. Last weekend, Survation for the Sunday Post had the Tories on 28% to the SNP’s 43%. This could net them eight seats at the nationalists’ expense. Panelbase for the Sunday Times has them down for 33%, or 12 seats. As this is a social science blog that prefers facts over nice illusions, how can this uptick in Tory fortunes be explained?
Let’s backtrack to the Britain-wide fall out of the Brexit vote. For some time, we’ve noted how in England the losing side has acquired a political dynamic of its own. The Liberal Democrats – the party most associated with staying in the EU – are surging in council by-elections and piling on the members. They sailed past the 100,000 figure this week and look set to bust through their all-time record. Had the referendum gone the other way, no doubt Leave would be pulling in and motivating a layer of voters. Rather than getting a battering in Stoke, UKIP may well have taken the seat and it could have been them surging in local contests, instead of dwindling away. Careful what you wish for indeed. We saw a similar dynamic unfold in Scotland after the independence referendum, and the blood price the SNP extracted for their defeat was the destruction of Scottish Labour.
Remain voters are energised and leave’ers are less so, the majority of the latter appearing to line up behind Theresa May. In Scotland, the shoe is on the other foot. With the utter dominance of politics by the SNP who, lest we forget, have been running the Scottish government for almost a decade, and are pushing another independence poll on the basis of the Brexit vote, the SNP is clearly the party of remain. It then begs the question where to go if you don’t feel the nationalists speak for you on independence nor the EU? With Labour down for the count, it has to be Ruth Davidson’s Tories. After all, they’re not the Scottish establishment and, rape clause notwithstanding, Ruth is so personable and warm that the Tories can’t be too bad.
With the cohering of the Leave/No vote around party lines, so the SNP could well lose seats to the Conservatives. A disaster for Scottish nationalism? Not in the slightest. While Sturgeon would rather not bid farewell to however many MPs, a viable Scottish Tory party suits her party’s interests. They can be singled out as a warning against complacency, a visible enemy to overcome. And it allows her to burnish the SNP’s social democratic creds regularly, strengthening the binds of irrelevance keeping Labour down. If you want a progressive alternative to what the Tories are doing at Westminster, Our Kez and friends aren’t in a position to deliver it are they?
The looming problem the SNP have, however, is the danger they may have overplayed their independence hand. When all people hear is independence, 2nd referendum, independence, 2nd referendum, voters can get fed up. That leaves the SNP vulnerable once the shine starts to dull because their time in power has been less than stellar. Education inequality in Scotland is shocking, and the SNP appear powerless and clueless about what to do. That and other issues can leave them vulnerable to the Tories and their specious – but effective – rhetoric of one nationism and having plans for everything.
We will see if the results bear the polls out in the local elections, and then on June 8th.
An interesting article thanks James.
So, the Tories and the SNP and LibDems respectively have ‘cornered the market’ for being the ‘brexit’ or ‘anti-brexit’ parties.
So what does Labour do?
Easy, be the party of socialism and the party of the working class.
Labour needs to be the Beyond Brexit party
Was this article written by Phil BC? I just ask because it contains so many links to his blog and seems to match his writing style. Would be worth correcting the author if this is the case.
[Now corrected. Thanks – Ed]
We should appeal to the Scottish working class and socialists and people in general.
We understand why many walked away from us after New Labour Neo-Liberalism but as many of us as working class people in Labour have our backs against the wall we need you help – the Scottish working class, socialists and people YOU could be the cavalry!
Come back to Labour, under Jeremy Corbyn Labour is now worthy of your presence.
Come back to Labour, come home, we have missed you.
Solidarity!
To quote a lovely recent Country and Western song: “May Day! May Day!”
Discussing the possibility of a Tory breakthrough in Scotland could be interesting and even important. But should this not be in the context of a wide-ranging debate about the way forward for the general election more generally? And do we not have comrades in Scotland to write about that?
Also, five of the last ten articles have been by Phil B-C recycled from his blog. Don’t we need a rather greater diversity of opinion and argument?
David,
Fortunately you do still have comrades in Scotland. There is Donald and Donalda McBonkers from The Timber scheme in Auchinleck, a heavily sedated care in the community, “not to be approached under any circumstances”, male patient, last seen wandering the streets of Kirkcaldy and I.
Let it be my pleasure to fill you in. The remnants of The Labour Scottish Branch Office are holed up in their garrison at Glasgow City Chambers. Food and water ran out years ago. Rumours of canibalism are rife. Be reassured, few brave comrades have slipped out over the years, under the cover of darkness and made it to the safe house at The House of Lords. The remaining poor souls will be cleared out on Thursday. Our brave emergency services are on stand by. Please check the obituary column of the Glasgow Herald for internment details.
I hope we win in Scotland, I really do. And there are some excellent Labour candidates up there.
But if we can win the election in England, then losing in Scotland won’t adversely affect the overall result.
” But if we can win the election in England,” In the words of the great Ruby Wax ” Oh, phuleese?”.
It’s true Imran, looking purely at the map of Britain it’s not immediately obvious, but Scotland’s population – no disrespect to the Scots – is actually less than one-tenth of England.
And so the Scottish Parliamentary Seats – while of course we’ll fight for them as hard as we can and want to win as many of them as possible – are not critical to the outcome of the election as a whole.
It’s in England that general elections are fought and won (or lost) and if you look at all previous elections, no party has ever won a UK election without winning England.
Again, totally no disrespect to the Scots, just stating the facts.
Karl, you seem not to understand that in a tight electoral situation (which is the best we can hope for) the votes cast for an area returning 9% of all UK Parliament MPs is very big deal indeed.
I am not against allowing Donald and Donalda McBonkers to express their views but more importantly this website recently supported a left slate for the Scottish Labour EC. All or some of them were elected. Can they not write? If not why were they on the slate?
David,
Your last two questions are apt. The answer to your second question is, they will be STUC thugs or just thugs. And I mean thugs as in housing scheme mobsters. The answer to your first question is, probably not.
Such is the quality of Scottish Labour.