Whilst the latest YouGov poll, in line with almost all other recent polls, shows Labour just ahead of the Tories (41% to 40%), with the LibDems trailing badly (at 7%), the most worrying news is about AV. In their recent polls, the remaining Liberal Democrat supporters say they would prefer a Conservative government to a Labour one by 51% to 16%. That means AV would help the Lib Dems and the Tories, not Labour.
As YouGov say:
The alternative vote is generally perceived to be most helpful to the electoral chances of the Liberal Democrats and to Labour, a belief that is backed up by polling at past general elections. This is because as a centrist party, the Liberal Democrats have been well placed to get second preferences from both Labour and Conservative voters, and because historically Liberal Democrat supporters have tended to say they are far more likely to give their second preferences to the Labour party.
YouGov explain that this is not a reflection of shifting Liberal Democrat opinion, rather it is that many Labour-sympathising Liberal Democrats have deserted the party.
All this crystal-ball gazing is very premature. Who AV will help depends entire on the mood in the country in 2015. It could be any one of the three big parties — or none of them.
Measuring the effect of AV with short a short-term view is ludicrous. On the narrow question of partisan impact, the question is which party over time benefits from requiring candidates to gain more votes. Or, more broadly, which party gains from promoting a fairer democracy?
You’ve got to remember that the LibDems have lost half their support since the election, and almost all of them have gone to Labour. So it makes sense that those remaining are much more pro-Tory than pro-Labour, because otherwise they would have left.
And with the Libs down to 7% in the polls, who cares if 51% of the vote Tory?