How the Tories see their future

It is encouraging to see how the Tories see their own future — and it’s not bright. Tim Montgomerie of Conservative Home believes that Labour’s position may be weak, but that doesn’t mean that the Tories’ position is strong: “Households are living under the shadow of two great challenges – massive debts and the fast-growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. People are nervous…. The most worrying thing for a sick economy isn’t controversial medicines but a sense that the doctor has no cure.” And so he lists what he calls “some arresting facts“:

The Conservatives haven’t won a general election outright since 1992.

Against a discredited, disunited and badly-led Labour government we added just 4% to our support at the last election and 2005 was one of our worst ever defeats.

Only 27% of voters in the most marginal seats think we are on the side of ordinary people.

We have lost our advantage among women voters. Favourability towards the coalition is 12% lower among female voters according to internal Tory polling (£).

Most voters think the spending cuts are “unfair”.

We were 10% behind Labour in the north of England in 1979. We are now 13% behind. In Scotland, of course, the situation is even worse.

After the NHS reform debacle only 20% think the health service is safe in David Cameron’s hands.

Asked to say who the Conservative Party and David Cameron most understands, voters say the rich and big business. The group the Conservative Party understands least according to a YouGov survey for ConHome of 2,333 voters are families struggling to make ends meet.

The Tories are still fishing in a smaller pool than Labour. While 70% would consider voting for Ed Miliband’s party and 64% would consider voting Liberal Democrat, the ceiling for the Tories is just 58%. In order to win an election we need to convert a good three quarters of our potential voters while Labour only needs to capture a much smaller proportion.

Lord Ashcroft’s ‘Project Blueprint’ survey of 10,000 voters found that (in his words): “For those who considered voting Tory in 2010 but thought better of it, the biggest barrier (which Tories are sick of hearing about but is real nonetheless) was the continuing impression that the party is for the rich, not people like them.”