The Tyrie Commission report on banking is too narrow and misses the real point

The Tyrie Commission, after 9 months of deliberation and 571 poages of reporting, has disappointingly limited its purview to governance, standards and culture – issues which certainly cry out for reform, but which are not at the heart of what is really wrong with the banks. But on those issues it has been promisingly radical. It would be difficult not to be when the bankers have nearly blown up the global economy and have so far received nothing more painful than social opprobrium and a reduction in pay and bonuses from the outlandish to the merely excessive.

Nevertheless it is good that there is now real pressure on the Treasury behind the idea that key responsibilities within banks should be assigned to specific individuals (‘the senior persons regime’), together with a licensing regime for any bank staff who could “seriously harm the bank, its reputation or its customers”. It is better still that the report proposes a new crime of ‘reckless misconduct’ for bankers as well as reversing the burden of proof against bankers in civil cases. Continue reading →

Unite backing for continued public ownership of RBS

RBSAhead of the report by the parliamentary commission on banking standards, due to report back this week on the future of RBS, Unite, which represents workers at RBS and 120,000 workers altogether in financial services, has called on the government to commit to the full nationalisation of RBS in which the state currently has an 81% stake. This stands in contrast to statements by Ed Balls which, although opposed to Osborne’s planned sell-off, does so on the grounds of timing only, arguing that selling too soon would damage public finances.

Balls said the Conservatives were putting “politics before economics” by trying to privatise the bank before it has been fully returned to health. The union, on the other hand, believes “RBS should become the ‘dynamo’ to drive the UK out of the economic doldrums through lending and support to businesses and communities”. Continue reading →

Demand, debt mountains and the next crash

debtThe problem – a very big problem indeed – for capitalism at its present stage is that demand is flat, or falling. That underlying pattern has existed for the past 40 years, since the demand for continent-wide reconstruction after the Second World War gradually petered out in the 1970s. Thereafter the flatness of demand was obscured by the Cold War acceleration of global arms expenditure, as well as by the world-scale development in technology applying to cars, planes and computers.

The unipolar power of the US as the world’s hegemon plus the lack of technological breakthroughs with worldwide industrial application have left a growing vacuum of demand. Demand, that is, sufficient to power a global capitalism that depends on it. That comparative vacuum which was met by the enormous explosion of debt in the 1990-2000s, and which led directly to the global financial crash of 2008-9, is once again being met by the huge expansion of debt which cannot conceivably be sustained long-term.

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Abenomics: works in Japan, rejected by Osborne – and now Balls

Balls saysSince Shinzo Abe came to power, the Japanese stock market has risen an astonishing 50% in 5 months, and the replacement of the fatalism which has dogged Japan’s economy by a new burst of policy activism has profound implications for the UK. There is another precedent for this policy activism other than the General Theory of John Maynard Keynes in 1936 which transformed Western macroeconomic thinking till the high inflation of the 1970s caused by the sudden quadrupling of the oil price by the Shah of Persia and OPEC led to the eclipse of Keynesian stimulus theory and the rise of neo-liberal ultra-free-markets capitalism.

Keynesian analysis of course was not disproved by the 1970s experience because it was never designed to deal with hyper-inflation, but rather with the serious and prolonged loss of demand in a depression. That situation is now being repeated today, which is why Keynesian stimulus policies are once again highly relevant. But there is a Japanese precedent here too.

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The FT, hedgehogs and the scale of the crisis

13 05 29 Anatomy of a recession Chart 1In analysis of any issue it is crucial to distinguish between factors that are of primary or decisive importance and those that are secondary or lesser matters. This applies to economic analysis as much as other disciplines. There is a vast amount of economic data which is produced by innumerable public and private agencies internationally, and an almost endless number of ways of configuring the data supplied.

The most important issue facing the British economy is how to end the slump. No other issue, employment, incomes, government finances or anything other question can be resolved without it.

Therefore it is extremely important to analyse the trends and prospects for growth in a sober fashion and to focus on the most decisive factors. It is unhelpful or even misleading to focus primarily on secondary matters. Continue reading →