The Liberal Democrats are not having a good election. Bullish coming off the back of a steadily increasing tally of councillors picked up from local authority by-elections, buoyed by a yellow wave of new members that has taken them to over 100,000 members, and their triumph in Richmond, everyone was expecting great things. Well, better things. Then came the local elections, which saw a net loss of council seats (substantially more than a year’s worth of by-election gains) and, despite a local vote tally projected around the 18% mark, their polling numbers are stubbornly low. It might be that Labour are squeezing their vote as the more progressive-minded LibDem voters who returned to the Liberals over the course of the last year have doubled back. This means the notion they’re going to recover loads of seats lost in 2015 is, at the moment, looking fanciful. Continue reading
Posted in Lib-Dems
What is in the Liberal Democrat manifesto (and what isn’t)
It was Labour’s turn on Tuesday, and yesterday it was the Lib Dems opportunity to launch their manifesto for the General Election on June 8th. The big themes? Rejoining Europe, smoking weed, and doing both of those outside of a coalition.
According to their website, and re-iterated in the manifesto, the Lib Dems have ruled out any coalitions with either Labour or the Tories, and are are pitching themselves to become the opposition, rather than the government. They claim this is because both parties are too ‘pro-Brexit’, and they won’t support allowing either party to take Britain out of the single market. Continue reading
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Labour, the elections, and the polls
There is a tendency on the left to dismiss opinion polls, partly, and fairly, because they have proved to be significantly inaccurate in the two most important votes of the last two years, the 2015 election and the 2016 EU Referendum, and partly, and usually misguidedly, that what they tell us can always be overcome. That is not to say that it can’t, and as Jeremy Corbyn has said we should not treat the election as a ‘foregone conclusion’, but polls should be treated seriously as they are normally not too far from the truth.
Labour’s position in the polls now is worse than at any time since 1983 for an opposition party, and Corbyn’s personal rating as leader likewise. How and why did this happen? During his first period as leader Labour averaged about 31/32, only just behind the Tories on 33/34. Although there was much criticism the position pre referendum and coup was not unreasonable, with Labour recouping its six point deficit in the 2015 election by the 2016 elections. However, The gap widened considerably in the post referendum period, with Labour averaging 26 for most of this period, with the Tories averaging 41. Reasons are the coup, with voters being well aware that Corbyn is opposed by three quarters of his MPs, the Brexit vote which inevitably meant that Labour had to adopt a ‘facing both ways’ position, and the continued failure to develop policy and divisions and departures among his staff and within Momentum. Continue reading
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The Liberal Democrat campaign in Stoke Central
Individually, some are great. I’d even count one of them as a friend. But as a party I cannot stand the bloody Liberal Democrats, and the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election reminded me why.
The LibDems will be quite pleased with their performance last Thursday. As the spotlight was on the other parties, their vote quietly put on five percentage points, the deposit was saved, and they recaptured some of the support lost since 2015. The Wheatsheaf Hotel was their base in Stoke, which was perhaps a little too from the beaten track for many London journos to find. And, by the sounds of it, ‘celebrity’ LibDems as well. Fresh from her triumph in Richmond, Sarah Olney was on hand and, well, that was about it. Oh yes, Tim Farron slid his way briefly into the constituency for a photo opp before a rapid, frictionless exit. They were never contenders, and having selected Dr Zulfiqar Ali – one of the few politicians to have lost more elections than Nigel Farage – they knew it too. Continue reading
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The by-election results and what they tell us
In a previous article I looked at the polls during Corbyn’s period as leader, noting the deterioration in the period post the referendum/coup compared to that preceding it. I also noted that actual election results up to and including May 2016 were not bad, and for the parliamentary by-elections and mayoral elections were very good.
Let us now have a look at the actual results since the referendum/coup in late June. There have been only by-elections during this period, four parliamentary with two pending, and many council by-elections.
There is no point in considering the Batley and Spen by-election, as none of the other major parties contested it out of respect for the murdered Jo Cox, so it cannot tell us anything, except rather sadly demonstrating that despite the circumstances of the by-election some 2,000 voters were prepared to vote for an unsavoury bunch of candidates from the far right. Continue reading
