As someone who gives a somewhat greater credibility to polls than many, I was not among those of the true faith who never doubted that Labour would do well, and indeed was, until late April, in despair as polls had consistently for about five months indicated a Tory landslide, for which the poor local election results on May 4th were a harbinger. But then the first of many rules was broken (Polls do not move much during campaigns). They moved enormously during the last four weeks, so that on the eve of the election they indicated that May would not do much better than before and that Labour would get about 35%, better than Miliband or Brown and as good as Blair in 2005, thus consolidating Corbyn’s position. Continue reading
Posted in Westminster
Election campaigning resumes today and tomorrow
General Election campaigning to resume today
After the horrific attacks in Manchester on Monday evening, in which 22 people tragically lost their lives, Theresa May announced that General Election campaigning would be suspended. Campaigning will now resume, starting with local campaigning today followed by national campaigning tomorrow.
Momentum have organised a series of campaigning sessions, including trips to Crewe and Nantwich with candidate Laura Smith and Bolton North East with their candidate David Crosby. You can get more details from Momentum here. Momentum are also holding Bernie Sanders style training sessions across the country to get you doorstep ready. You can find your nearest training session here. Continue reading
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Labour announces National Education Service to fund schools, colleges and university grants
Yesterday Labour announced a raft of pledges related to education, from primary schools to adult learning and covering just about everything in-between. Stating his intention to deliver a National Education Service, Jeremy Corbyn unveiled a set of policies that would begin to restore much of the funding lost under the Conservatives over the last seven years.
Jeremy Corbyn was joined in Leeds by Angela Rayner, Shadow Education Secretary, and Rebecca Long-Bailey, Shadow Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary to announce the proposals. Continue reading
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Labour, the elections, and the polls
There is a tendency on the left to dismiss opinion polls, partly, and fairly, because they have proved to be significantly inaccurate in the two most important votes of the last two years, the 2015 election and the 2016 EU Referendum, and partly, and usually misguidedly, that what they tell us can always be overcome. That is not to say that it can’t, and as Jeremy Corbyn has said we should not treat the election as a ‘foregone conclusion’, but polls should be treated seriously as they are normally not too far from the truth.
Labour’s position in the polls now is worse than at any time since 1983 for an opposition party, and Corbyn’s personal rating as leader likewise. How and why did this happen? During his first period as leader Labour averaged about 31/32, only just behind the Tories on 33/34. Although there was much criticism the position pre referendum and coup was not unreasonable, with Labour recouping its six point deficit in the 2015 election by the 2016 elections. However, The gap widened considerably in the post referendum period, with Labour averaging 26 for most of this period, with the Tories averaging 41. Reasons are the coup, with voters being well aware that Corbyn is opposed by three quarters of his MPs, the Brexit vote which inevitably meant that Labour had to adopt a ‘facing both ways’ position, and the continued failure to develop policy and divisions and departures among his staff and within Momentum. Continue reading
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On the doors in Stoke Central
Hoping for another sunny, balmy Saturday was too much to ask for. As Labour’s canvassing teams went door-to-door in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election last week, it was under clear skies and dry weather. Those same teams today went out in biting cold and a snow so desultory it couldn’t be arsed to leave even a light sprinkling. Still, neither work as meteorological metaphors for the reception we found on the doors.
Understandably, a lot of people want to know how it’s going. The bookies more or less have Labour and UKIP level pegging, and despite almost two years of UKIP decline at the polls there are people in the media happy to talk the purples up. Typical of this was Polly Toynbee’s latest missive, which reckoned Labour is hanging on by its finger tips. Perhaps had she done some politics rather than just write about it and joined activists door knocking she would have found a different story. Continue reading