How PM Matteo Renzi’s ‘Jobs Act’ will sink Italy

Matteo RenziItaly’s new PM, Matteo Renzi, has pledged to slash the country’s record unemployment with his American-branded ‘Jobs Act’. But his labour reforms, which will see short term job contracts extended for up to 3 years, are more of the same medicine applied since the turn of the 1990s that have been such bad news for the Italian economy and workers, argues Paolo Pini.

Renzi has pledged to enact reforms that tackle Italy’s growth and productivity crisis. But his ‘flexible’  labour reforms – which will allow employers to fire workers on the payroll for three years without justification –   will do nothing to reverse the backwardness of Italy’s economy. Continue reading →

Who’s fooling who at the BBC about the rise of China?

<em>Image credit: <a href="http://www.123rf.com/photo_9991487_yuan-graph-on-china-map-flag-illustration.html">fintastique / 123RF Stock Photo</a></em>Robert Peston is the BBC’s new economics editor. He has opened his new role with a programme called ‘How China Fooled the World’. For a time it is available on BBC iPlayer and Peston’s own summary is here.

In the blog and the programme Peston argues that China dodged the global economic crisis by increasing investment, specifically state-led investment. But the prevailing level of investment was already excessively high, the argument runs, and merely postponing the crisis by increasing it further will only exaggerate the inevitable crash. Continue reading →

Whatever Osborne says, employers still don’t believe in the recovery

George Osborne naked, credit to the Daily Mirror, http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/parliament/2010/10/osborne-stripped-naked.htmlThe latest quarterly jobs figures reported by Manpower reveal the real truth about the economy. Not the gushing presentation offered by Osborne in his autumn statement, but what the men (nearly always men) with power and money really think. After the supposedly independent OBR upped its growth forecast for this year from 0.6 per cent in March to 1.4 per cent, and next year to 2.5 per cent, one would expect employers to be pursuing an investment and re-employment strategy to exploit the promised surge in growth.

Not a bit of it. Despite the government’s triumphalist forecasts that the economy is now growing at the fastest lick for a decade, employers are taking a much more cautious and nervous line. They’ve continued to hire largely part-time staff, revealing their concern that the recovery still remains fragile. In fact the biggest source of new employment isn’t across the economy as a whole, but actually in energy firms who’ve recruited thousands of new staff to deal with the blizzard of complaints about soaring electricity and gas bills. Continue reading →

Britain’s economic ‘boom’

As the British economic crisis becomes more prolonged the outbreak of stupidity that greets every new piece of important economic data becomes more generalised. Previously there has been a campaign to suggest that austerity has led to recovery when the opposite is the case. The recovery is based unsustainably on rising consumption, led by government consumption. The publication of the latest GDP data for most major economies has now led to wild suggestions that Britain is booming and is the strongest major economy in the world.

The level of real GDP in Britain since the recession began at the beginning of 2008 is shown in the chart below. It is compared to the US and the Euro Area. British growth has been almost exactly the same as that of the Euro Area as a whole and significantly worse than US GDP growth. Continue reading →

Have the Tories taken leave of their senses?

Osborne no cuts collage by CounterfireThe Tories must be in panic mode. Cameron promises a land of opportunity after the election, but Osborne condemns the country to 12 years of austerity up to 2020 (and will even that date be shifted rightwards like so many previous forecasts of the end to austerity?).

Osborne says he’s laying the foundations for sustainable growth, but then brings forward the £12bn stage two of his notorious Help to Buy scheme which even his Tory supporters believe will throw oil on the fire of the already overheated surge in house prices. Do the Tories really believe that they can win an election promising to cut the budget deficit, which has stalled for 3 years, by £35bn by 2015, £42bn by 2017-8, and by another £43bn by 2020 to produce a budget surplus? Continue reading →