Beware predictions, even ours. We have predicted here that Ed Miliband would come through to win the leadership election as have others as varied as Labour right-winger Luke Akehurst who supports him and (just about) Simon Heffer in today’s Telegraph, who presumably doesn’t. And the odds had shortened on the younger Mili even before Unison’s decision today to back him. But predictions, like polls, can mislead.
The older Mili is still ahead in nominations in the PLP and, more surprisingly, the CLPs. In the unions, he may be behind in nominations but his vast team of staff may well pull off a higher turnout in USDAW or regions of bigger unions whose local leadership is sympathetic than unions recommending his brother, and votes are not weighted by individual union affilation levels but simply aggregated.
What is now clear is that Ed Miliband is the candidate best placed to beat his older brother. It will be a close contest in the final round. So, for those of you who would rather not see another Mandelson-backed Blairite as Labour leader, if your first choice is not Ed Miliband, make sure he’s your second!