The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andrew Haldane, has had the good grace to admit that the Bank’s forecast of the likely economic consequences of Brexit – that consumption, employment, share values and economic activity in general would fall – was, at least in the short term, mistaken. The British economy, since the Brexit referendum, has prospered and has out-performed most other developed economies.

In making his mea culpa, he acknowledged that the error had further weakened confidence in the economics profession, but it is not only economists who must shoulder the blame. There was no shortage of establishment voices – business leaders, media commentators and politicians in particular – who issued similar ill-founded warnings; remember George Osborne’s need for an “emergency budget” in the event of a decision in favour of Brexit? Continue reading →

I am proud to be a sixth-generation New Zealander. But I am also gratefully aware of my British heritage.

All eight of the families of my great grandparents came to New Zealand, from England, Scotland and Wales, and had settled here by the mid-nineteenth century. I had the pleasure of returning to the UK as a student and spending a substantial part of my working life there.

My involvement in British politics meant that I took more than a passing interest in the referendum on whether the UK should remain in the European Union. I was surprised, but pleased, at the result, but I have been even more surprised – and less pleased – at the reaction to that result, not least the reaction of some prestigious organs of opinion whose opinions I normally respect. Continue reading →