Hurrah for Jeremy Corbyn, now safely past the 35 nominations hurdle. And not a moment too soon. The mountain to climb that now confronts Labour demands a refreshing new voice that acknowledges the ideological weakness that has crippled the party over the last decade and is prepared to confront the hard underlying structural issues that are relentlessly pulling this country down, notably austerity, an unaccountable banking sector, a market fundamentalism that has run out of control, a highly damaging privatisation of nearly all public services, and an explosive inequality between rich and poor. Unless Labour presents an alternative vision to the failure of the last decade to confront these central issues, it is hard to see how the party can regain the nation’s confidence, particularly on economic and financial issues.
Labour now faces an enormous task. Unless the party recovers significantly in Scotland, where only 3 SNP MPs have majorities of less than 6,000, it would require a swing of 11.4% in England and Wales to win in 2020. That is actually larger than the swing achieved across the UK in 1997, which was 10.3%. Nearly all the advantages which Labour hoped would see them through to victory on 7 May have evaporated. Contrary to expectation, the party increased its majorities in safe seata but lost out in many target marginals. There are now only 25 marginals with majorities less than 3,000, though the Tories now hold 23 of them. If the Tories now push through the boundary changes which the LibDems vetoed in 2013, which they will, it is estimated that Labour will need some 106 seats to win a majority.
This will be harder than ever given the Scottish debacle, the mishap in key marginals, the decline of centre-left tactical voting, the inequality in funding, and an electoral system that was previously believed to favour Labour but which now favours the Tories. There are other factors too. The introduction of individual registration will enable the new constituencies to benefit the Tories, particularly in urban and socially deprived areas, i.e. Labour’s key zones. The Tories will no doubt also seek to extend the advantage they already have with expatriate voters, who largely vote Tory, by abolishing the current 15-year limit and increasing the right to vote to their whole life, even if they have had no direct connection with the UK for decades. By contrast, trade union members will be required to opt in to paying the political levy, which will widen the funding inequality between the two parties still further.
Huge though these barriers are, they are certainly not insuperable. Labour could still win power, for example, with the support of the SNP and the LibDems if it were the second largest party in a hung Parliament after a swing of 5%. But what matters far more is an ideological re-awakening on the Left and the robustness of a new vision and a commanding narrative to promulgate it. Jeremy Corbyn is the ideal figure to lead that renewal.
Good article Michael. Let’s hope that people follow the Star’s advice
http://morningstaronline.co.uk/a-e900-Sign-up-to-vote-left
http://www.labour.org.uk/w/labour-party-supporters
We shouldn’t feel depressed at the challenges we face.
We just need to campaign for democratic socialist ideas and comnunicate these simply and clearly, to try to engage with the 15.9m who did not vote (and 7.5m didn’t register to vote) – to these groups, “They’re all the same!”
It would help if Labour MPs were democratic socialists first and not politicians.
We need to appeal to working class people and the progressive middle class and take on the general middle class (socialised to vote Tory) to try to win them to the progressive middle class and there should be no ‘no-go zones’ like the South/South East/Cornwall.
And even Scotland where democratic socialists need to take on social democrats in a more Federal Britain.
The Tories overall only got 24% of the total electorate and as mentioned here in 23 of their seats they have majorities of 3,000 or less so to make people fell better 76% of the total electorate didn’t back the Tories!
But Labour needs to return to being a political party again which promotes political education – the more working class and progressive middle class people there are the stronger we all are.
But we need to get the party back to being run by grassroots members instead of top-down.
Policy to be made by members at Conference via OMOV and CLPs choosing shortlists & candidates.
I would also like to see positive working class action to get more working class democratic socialist candidates on Parliamentary shortlists and then from a diverse number of candidates may the best democratic socialist win.
Our membership fee of £45.50 may also price out those on low incomes whose voices we need (although some may qualify to pay half) but this is still too much – so let’s have a mass party with a belief system and policies which offer an alternative vision to Neo-Liberalism, and have a £5 minimum membership fee and the rest on a sliding scale based on income to attract the many and not the few!
And of course the better off can always pay extra if they wish.
So the Left has, and always has had vision (perhaps not always brilliantly communicated) and we may be up against some who offer, “Change, No Change.”
But perhaps we also need to use humour – I hope Jeremy Corbyn will be invited to speak to the Anti-Austerity Rally in London on Saturday (and he should appeal to the crowd to register as Labour supporters to vote for him) but the organisers could also ask the other 3 candidates to address the crowd? Then let the crowd vote!
Time for the Left to get behind Jeremy Corbyn! Yours in solidarity!
In my view the only way is up! Jeremy is inspiring loads of people to get involved in the labour party again. For the first time in years there is a huge amount of discussing going on in labour party re real changes to policy and challenges to the tory agenda. This can only be a good thing.