1) To what extent would a hard Brexit result in a substantial economic downturn from which no recovery would be likely in the short term? The answer depends on the deal/or none that is eventually concluded. It could be that the EU offers a free trade deal, on the grounds that not to do so […]
The General Election 2017: What happened and why?
Jul 2nd, 2017 by Peter Rowlands.As someone who gives a somewhat greater credibility to polls than many, I was not among those of the true faith who never doubted that Labour would do well, and indeed was, until late April, in despair as polls had consistently for about five months indicated a Tory landslide, for which the poor local election […]
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Labour, the elections, and the polls
May 2nd, 2017 by Peter Rowlands.There is a tendency on the left to dismiss opinion polls, partly, and fairly, because they have proved to be significantly inaccurate in the two most important votes of the last two years, the 2015 election and the 2016 EU Referendum, and partly, and usually misguidedly, that what they tell us can always be overcome. […]
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Brexit: Where do we go from here?
Mar 2nd, 2017 by Peter Rowlands.The Brexit debate has now become very unclear, with in my view many activists and quite a few MPs either confused or failing to understand that Labour’s position was and is the only one it is possible to take if the object is to minimise the damage to Labour and lay the basis for a […]
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The by-election results and what they tell us
Mar 1st, 2017 by Peter Rowlands.In a previous article I looked at the polls during Corbyn’s period as leader, noting the deterioration in the period post the referendum/coup compared to that preceding it. I also noted that actual election results up to and including May 2016 were not bad, and for the parliamentary by-elections and mayoral elections were very good. […]
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Labour, Corbyn and the polls
Feb 6th, 2017 by Peter Rowlands.Pollsters in the UK do not have a very good standing, having got the two most important voting tests of the last two years, the 2015 election and the 2016 EU referendum, wrong by significant margins. Nevertheless, they are collectively not completely at variance with the results, and an average of the results of polls […]
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Developments on the European Left
Jan 16th, 2017 by Peter Rowlands.It is not altogether surprising that Corbyn’s intention to hold a conference of socialist and progressive parties to discuss Brexit, in London announced in February in October and December last year, has been met with little comment. He made the announcement to the PES which is the Party of European Socialists, an umbrella group of […]
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The Richmond by-election and what it means
Dec 6th, 2016 by Peter Rowlands.Last week’s by-election in Richmond was the second resounding success for the Lib-Dems, after Witney, in using a by-election to demonstrate the breadth of opposition to Brexit, and it places them in a strong position to lead and promote such a campaign, despite having few MPs, and limited resources, certainly compared to Labour. I don’t […]
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Labour’s Policy-Making Process
Nov 24th, 2016 by Peter Rowlands.Except for the brief period between the final determination of the manifesto and the election at which it is aimed, policy making is always ‘work in progress’, formally reflecting the work of the Policy Commissions and the National Policy Forum (NPF), but in practice including the continuation of past policy (as with Trident, of which […]
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A left approach to Brexit
Oct 26th, 2016 by Peter Rowlands.Paul Mason and Chuka Umunna would normally be expected to come up with radically different proposals with regard to Labour’s policies, yet they are putting forward more or less the same solutions to the most pressing problem underlying Brexit, that of Free Movement of Labour (FML), Mason in an article in the New Statesman, Umunna in […]
