The Brexit negotiations are entering a decisive phase, with leading UK business organisations saying they will not invest and must consider whether they relocate if there is no agreement on a transition phase and there is clear progress on trade talks. For its part the Tory Cabinet is deferring any discussion on its key aims […]
Two key reasons for Corbyn’s stunning advance
Jun 22nd, 2017 by Tom O Leary.This post first appeared on Socialist Economic Bulletin. Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership the Labour Party has staged a stunning revival, prevented Theresa May achieving a landslide which she would have claimed as a mandate for ‘Hard Brexit’ and has caused a crisis of Tory government which will make it harder to make new cuts in […]
Tories want to drive living standards lower. Corbyn wants to end austerity
May 31st, 2017 by Tom O Leary.This article first appeared on Socialist Economic Bulletin. During the current crisis the UK has experienced the longest-ever recorded fall in living standards. The biggest part of that fall is not the cuts to government spending, even though these have had severe effects. Instead the largest factor contributing to the fall in living standards is the […]
Fall in wages has much further to run
Mar 28th, 2017 by Tom O Leary.The latest consumer price inflation (CPI) data showed a sharp acceleration in prices increases. This will have a negative effect on real wages and real incomes, once inflation is taken into account. Most workers are facing flat wages and the poor, who rely on social welfare and are seeing freezes or cuts, will all be […]
Why are real wages falling?
Mar 22nd, 2017 by Tom O Leary.Real wages are falling once more. In addition, nominal wages have fallen in the last 2 months which is highly unusual. Both of these developments are Brexit effects and the situation is likely to get worse as Brexit unfolds. The trends in both real (inflation-adjusted) and nominal wages are shown in Chart 1 below. Real […]
Britain isn’t booming – it’s in a crisis
Mar 14th, 2017 by Tom O Leary.The latest UK GDP data confirm that the British economy remains in a crisis. As government spokespersons never tire of telling us the opposite, and are dutifully echoed by the majority of the media, then it is important to set out the factual case on the economy and to explain where the discrepancy between rhetoric […]
There is no ‘People’s Brexit’
Mar 7th, 2017 by Tom O Leary.The certainty that Brexit will push living standards lower is not really a forecast- it is already happening. Fundamental economic forces mean that Brexit can only have a negative outcome. Immediately following the referendum the pound fell sharply and has more or less stayed at that lower level since. The 13% decline means that CPI […]
This is no ‘Project Fear’ – our Brexit economy is faltering
Feb 7th, 2017 by Tom O Leary.The UK economy has slowed since the Brexit vote. This is long before Brexit actually takes place, which will cause a further sharp deceleration in the economy and significantly lower living standards. The latest GDP data have been widely hailed as confounding the authors of ‘Project Fear’, including the former Chancellor George Osborne. His talk […]
RBS shows left must think for itself
Dec 15th, 2016 by Tom O Leary.Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is a publicly-owned bank. The overwhelming majority of its shares are in state hands, 73% of the equity. Yet it was the only major bank to fail outright the recent ‘stress test’ of its balance sheet conducted by the Bank of England. The bank is a basket-case. It is costing […]
Who are “the left behind”?
Nov 15th, 2016 by Tom O Leary.Following the Brexit vote here and the victory of Trump in the US Presidential election there has been much ill-informed discussion of the ‘left behind’, sometimes spuriously described as the white working class who have not benefitted from rising living standards, or even globalisation in general. It is not the purpose of this article to […]