Out of thin air – the (alleged) economic case for a third Heathrow runway

TBFadvert_sept1When I last twice travelled directly to Guangzhou, by China Southern Airline out of Heathrow, the flight was nearly full. But not – by visual impression at least – full of thrusting British entrepreneurs keen to visit the most vibrant economic region of China, thanks to this direct link from Britain’s hub airport. More like ordinary Chinese workers and some visitors. No – increasing trade is a more complex issue by far.

Which is one of many reasons why I was truly jaundiced reading Heathrow Airport’s advertisement yesterday, which compiled a list of highly dubious claims as to the benefits to all of us in the UK of a 3rd runway at Heathrow. I have no doubt that a 3rd runway there would be of benefit to the shareholders of Heathrow Airport, and might conceivably be nicer for passengers, but the specifically economic case for choosing Heathrow over say Gatwick – or indeed Boris Island – is still as thin as ever. Continue reading

Boris Island is a non-starter at £50bn+, but is he wrong about hubs too?

The whole argument about another airport runway for London is based on the idea that the future lies with big national hubs, and of course Heathrow argues that on that basis the extra airport runway should obviously be provided for Heathrow. They argue that 70% of all long-haul services to and from Britain go to Heathrow, and that is so important for airlines that they are prepared to pay £25-30m for take-off and landing slots there.

Also the government is already greatly helping Heathrow with important new transport links: Crossrail will have a stop there, and a spur may be built from the mooted HS2 to link up with Heathrow. But is the reinforcement of the existing hub inevitable, and indeed is it necessary or desirable? Continue reading

Why the economic case for a third runway at Heathrow still won’t fly

UK aviation makes up greater share of UK contribution to climate change than elsewhere. The world’s climate is changing rapidly (despite the army of powerful self-interested deniers), and we are experiencing more and more extreme weather events. Ironically, on the day the aviation industry launched a sophisticated, co-ordinated lobbying campaign for a third runway, scientists announced a record Arctic ice melt. As the Guardian reported, “the 2012 figure has beaten the previous record (2007)… [and] reveals that global climate breakdown is proceeding more rapidly than most climate scientists expected.” Continue reading