Tagged with Boundary Changes

Boundary changes for devo max: the Tory-SNP deal that may reshape the UK

For all of the miscalculations and cock-ups of the past two-and-a-half years, the Tory party, and David Cameron in particular, are as strategically focused as ever on winning power and holding on to it.

Few will be surprised to learn, then, that Cameron is still determined to force through parliamentary boundary changes next year that will reduce both the number of seats in parliament and in particular the number of Labour MPs, (by about 30) – and all in the face of opposition from Nick Clegg. And despite Clegg’s protestation, the Tories will probably be able to buy off some Liberal Democrat MPs threatened with extinction with a place in the Lords or on a quango. Continue reading →

English boundary changes: worse for Labour than predicted

UK Polling Report has completed an initial review of the English boundary changes  which predicts that “the provisional English boundaries would reduce the number of Conservative seats by 5, the number of Liberal Democrat seats by 7 and the number of Labour seats by 18. On the new boundaries, the Greens would not have won a seat in Brighton (but see the caveats below).” Labour would therefore suffer a net loss of seats relative to all other parties (in England) of 5.  Although (by some measures) this is not quite as bad for Labour as the boundary changes in 2010, it is significantly worse than had been predicted by “independent” experts, who had predicted the Labour would be the largest loser but have a net gain compared with all other parties combined.

Looking at the effect for Labour by region, the worst outcomes are in London and the Midlands. The best outcome for Labour (although it won’t feel that way to individual Labour MPs since it is the English region with the biggest net loss of seats) is the North West. Continue reading →