The irony for the EU, w
hich even its leaders now recognise must change course radically, is that it can’t. At least it can’t in its present structure without such dislocating changes as to be scarcely credible.
The central problem has been, and remains, the single currency. As long as countries, particularly on the southern periphery, remain locked within the eurozone interest rate and exchange rate and unable thereby to operate their own monetary policy, they have no option but to resort to austerity (i.e. cutting public expenditure, squeezing wages, letting unemployment soar) to regain competitiveness. But even that route is now blocked by these European election results. Even if that route were still open, it is clearly impossible for some eurozone countries under current conditions to raise their rate of growth sufficiently to prevent their indebtedness continuing to grow. Continue reading

The finance sector is signalling alarm, and our politicians are once again asleep at the wheel. Another “credit crunch” may be looming. The most significant evidence emerged from the ECB’s second Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) on Thursday last week.