The only thing about the vote on Scottish independence on which we can be pretty sure is that it will be close. I’d certainly prefer a no vote although I’m no more a unionist than a nationalist. I just question the very possibility of independence for Scotland in a sterling currency zone within the European union, in a global economy in which many corporations wield more power than all but the largest states.

If there’s a yes vote, the shock waves will be enormous, but much will still remain to be resolved in the negotiations which Alex Salmond has said will be conducted by a cross-party ‘Team Scotland‘. And as Paul Mason says, “even if the yes vote fails on 18 September, scoring somewhere in the mid 40s, the pattern of all future Scottish independence debates is set,” and there is no doubt that Salmond’s successors will bring the question back within 15 or 20 years. Whatever happens, the UK game has changed. Continue reading →