I am no psephologist but in compiling the graphs below I noticed a number of points which I think are important in any discussion of Labour’s poor performance in both Stoke Central and Copeland.

First the graphs which show Labour’s share of the vote and share of the total electorate since the creation of the two constituencies.

In the case of Stoke Central there is a clear picture of general decline (with a few ups and downs) ever since 1950. In that year more than 50% of the electorate turned out to support Labour. They did the same again in 1951. From that point the same thing was never again achieved and Labour support in the general electorate went into long-term decline. Labour peaked at 41.6% in 1997 and from that point the story was one of dramatic decline. By the end of the Blair/Brown years this had fallen to just 20.6%. In 2015 the figure went even lower and fell under 20%. Finally, in the 2017 by-election it fell to 14.2%. Even though Labour retained the seat this can hardly be regarded as a great victory. Despite Paul Nuttall’s many attempts to commit political hara-kiri, UKIP increased its share of the vote by 2.1% and Labour share fell by 2.2%. Continue reading →