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Isn’t a Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition right for Wales, whatever happens?

In Wales, the latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales, puts Labour on course for a majority of two. Although this is very tight and the Labour lead has slipped a little, this would be a spectacular win for Labour. However, some senior figures in Welsh Labour are known privately to favour a coalition with Plaid even if Labour does have a small majority. There are several arguments for this:

  1. Managing a tiny majority would bring problems which may well be greater than managing differences with Plaid;
  2. The coalition with Plaid has worked well and has many strong advocates amongst Labour assembly members and activists alike. Although there have inevitably been clashes during the election campaign, these are unlikely to cause lasting damage.
  3. The drastic cuts in Whitehall funding is the basis for cross-party agreement in Wales against the Westminster government. This strengthens the case for pluralism in forming an administration.

It is not worth speculating on the results at this stage but Plaid is still likely to be the biggest loser although it has recovered some ground in the campaign – the poll implies a loss of four of its current 15 seats, but the calculation is very complex. For example, in South Wales Central, Plaid could lose one of its two regional seats if the Lib Dems lose Cardiff Central. Although the Tories could gain a seat according to ITV, the most likely gainer, apart from Labour, is UKIP in North Wales.

Detailed poll results are as follows:

[table id=12 /]

One Comment

  1. Steve Kelly says:

    I do not agree with any kind of coalition unless it is the will of the people. And that should only be tested by referendum.

    If there is a so called hung parliament it should never be up to political parties to form a coalition. It is for the people to decide.

    The largest party should always rule as a minority Government unless they either call a new election or ask the people via a referendum if a coalition is OK.

    We should never have had the Government in Westminster – the Tories should have tried to rule on their own.

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