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Can Obama win?

Today’s Los Angeles Times reports that Obama has a clear fundraising edge over all his Republican rivals.

Key to winning will be to defend the gains Obama made in 2008 in the south: Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, which have 57 electoral college seats between them.

We should remind ourselves that only two generations ago the Democrats had double digit leads across the southern states; and it is too simplistic to ascribe this to Dixiecrat racism transferring to the GOP.

Jimmy Carter remains the most popular living former President, and was an unapologetic southerner; and the Democratic legacy in the Southern states was resonant with the ability of the Democrats to identify with the ordinary working American.

The genius of the Republicans is to have usurped the mantle of counter-cultural insurgents challenging the perceived out of touch elitism of the metropolitan Democrats.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Obama’s campaign will be targetting the latino populations of the swing states. While this is undoubtedly sensible, the Democrats cannot be safe until they address their fundamental weakness in the culture wars.

For many working class Americans in the south and the west, the Democrats seem desperately out of touch with their own concerns and anxieties; and too often the liberal left seem condescending.

To prosper the Democrats need a little less Barbara Steisland, and a little more Willie Nelson.

One Comment

  1. Graham Peasantry says:

    So basically it’s the time of the preacher.

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