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Labour leading in Scotland

The latest poll points to a Labour lead in the battle for the Scottish Parliament by 7% over the SNP in the regional votes which are normally the best predictor of the seats each party is likely to win. The YouGov poll shows that Labour is likely to do worse in the constituency elections — in which the SNP are slightly in the lead with Lib Dems in a disastrous 5th place after the Greens — but Labour would do much better in a Westminster election (though that is of no practical benefit).

The relatively strong performance of the SNP in the context of the Scottish parliament is likely to be partly the result of the public perception of Iain Gray compared with Alex Salmond — the two appeared in the first TV debate last night — and, in the constituency polls, the result of the support of Green voters. In Westminster elections, there appears to be a switch from the SNP to the Tories and by Green voters from the SNP to Labour.

The full results are as follows:

Holyrood Constituency: Con 11%, Lab 39%, LibDem 5%, SNP 40%
Holyrood Regional: Con 12%, Lab 39%, LibDem 5%, SNP 32%, Greens 6%
Westminster: Con 17%, Lab 46%, LibDem 6%, SNP 26%

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