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Large gains for Conservatives as UKIP and Labour suffer losses

Counting of the local election results got underway last night, and as of 9am this morning, Labour had won 91 seats, the Conservatives 454, Lib Dems 103, and the Greens 10. UKIP has lost every single seat it previously held. All of Wales has been counted and declared so far, while counting in Scotland and much of England got underway this morning. The results of the Liverpool, Manchester and West Midlands Metro Mayors are all expected later on today.

John McDonnell has told the Today programme Labour has defied expectations of a “wipeout”, and while the loss of over a hundred councillors has been a big disappointment, there are a number of qualifying factors at this early stage in the count. 

Firstly, the Labour vote has held up in places across Wales, and the party has retained Cardiff, Newport, Torfaen, Neath Port Talbot and increased its majority in Swansea. In some parts of England, such as Lincolnshire, the Labour vote actually rose. But those positives have to be offset against large losses elsewhere.

The second point is that the Tories huge increases have been fuelled not primarily by Labour voters switching to Conservative, but by the total collapse of UKIP, whose vote share is down 14% since 2013 and almost entirely to the benefit of the Conservatives.

Results will continue to come in throughout the day, and a full analysis will follow.

13 Comments

  1. Steven Johnston says:

    I heard him this morning on the Today programme. He didn’t sound too convincing and was side-tracked into a discussion on the May day photo of him under the CPGB-ML banner.
    How many times can you suffer a hammering before you realise it’s hopeless?

  2. Karl Stewart says:

    What’s happened is UKIPs going back to the Tories, not Labour voters deserting Labour.

    Look at this ‘Britain Elects’ vote share data from Lincolnshire, for example:

    Con: 53.4% (+17.4)
    Lab: 19.3% (+0.7)
    UKIP: 7.5% (-16.8)
    LDem: 4.6% (+0.1)
    Grn: 1.5% (+1.4)
    Oth: 13.7% (-2.7)

    The Conservative increase is almost all of the UKIP decrease, while Labour’s extremely slight increase, perhaps accounts for a tiny part of the UKIP slump.

    Labour has to win new voters and win support away from the little parties – LibDem, SNP and Green.

    1. Steven Johnston says:

      Then Labour are in for huge losses in the general election. As the UKIP vote, in about 90 labour seats, if given to the Tories, will ensure the Tories capture those seats!

      1. Karl Stewart says:

        If Labour continues to hold firm on our existing vote share – as we’re doing at the moment – then yes, that’s the danger to us.

        As I said earlier, Labour has to turn out more of our own vote, keep that firmed up, win new voters and win support away from the little parties – LibDem, SNP and Green.

        We need to repeatedly hammer home the clear message that every vote that is not cast for Labour is a vote that helps the Tories.

        1. Karl Stewart says:

          Holding on to our existing vote share is of course a good thing, but my point is that it is not enough, given the Tories’ ‘hovering up’ of UKIP.

          1. Steven Johnston says:

            It’s not a good thing if it’s not enough to win an election.
            Every party will surely be doing to same, i.e trying to take votes away from the other parties. They, apart from UKIP, will probably have more success.

    2. Imran Khan says:

      Your getting there Karl but still guilty of a bit of wishful thinking. The UKIP vote has certainly gone to the Tories but it was to a great extent originally Labour. It’s Labour that has lost those voters and probably for ever. More worryingly they are older, settled, most likely to be registered to vote and equally likely to do so.

      Increasingly the Labour vote is young and that group is constantly on the move because of the housing crisis and therefore although its opinion figures in the polls it can’t exercise its right to vote because of its very ambient nature.

  3. Bazza says:

    In elections with 40% turnouts – in Tory Shires England & Mayoral Elections some Met areas & Scottish & Welsh Councils.
    My analysis would suggest Labour Left Pro-Corbyn and Centre Left did better than Labour Right (no passion & souless campaigns) did worse.
    Time to appeal to the working class in England, Wales, Scotland in The Big One.
    Neo-Liberalism caused the financial crash – is fundamentally about CHEAP LABOUR – outsourcing, marketisation of everything, privatisation, re-classifying ex- Public sector jobs as self- employed, zero hours etc.
    This election is of global significance, a Jeremy Corbyn Labour Government COULD BREAK THE CHAIN OF NEO-LIBERALIM and offer an example to left wing democratic socialists in every country.
    As a working class socialist I can only offer a class appeal to the working class in England, Wales & Scotland – come home brothers and sisters – we working class behind Jeremy Corbyn have our backs against the wall and you could be the cavalry!
    ‘Day Dream Believer’ -The Monkees.
    LAB 4 HOPE

  4. Tony says:

    Sion Simon and Anna Turley have said that Corbyn is a problem on the doorstep.

    These people, and others, like them never tell us what efforts they make to defend Corbyn. I suspect that it is nothing.

    Do these people have no powers of persuasion?

    1. Steven Johnston says:

      LOL, I thought Corbynistas were all about listening to the people.
      Except when they tell you something you don’t want to hear of course!
      How many times do you have to be told, thanks but no thanks?
      Maybe it won’t just be Prince Philip that is retiring this year…

    2. Imran Khan says:

      What happens within Labour when they lose heavily in a few weeks time? Bloodletting? A split?

      1. Steven Johnston says:

        The rules will be changed so the activists can never “astroturf” a leader like this on the party.
        Clearly the voters don’t want him and neither do the MPs.

  5. Bazza says:

    SONG:
    “Four wheels on my waggon.
    And I’m still rolling on.
    The Cherekees are after me.
    Things look bad, they look mad.
    But I’m singing a happy song.”
    THEORY:
    Wolfgang Streeck in The New Left Review argues quantitative easing (the electronic printing of money) is only buying the rich and powerful time “As they haven’t a clue what to do.”
    ME:
    I have done everything from canvassing to leafleting to suggesting ideas and for example I put forward suggestions for a Comprehensive Housing Policy ( Neo-Liberalism stopped the Left from dreaming, time to start dreaming again) but perhaps at present socialists have 4 more rolls of the dice:
    1. JC get into the pubs and talk to people.
    2. JC accept Conference policy on Trident and A Review (and we can still get rid of 95% of our nuclear weapons as examples to others).
    3. Utilise the arts, music, comedy etc.
    4. My throw – have FREE PUBLIC TRANSPORT ‘ON THE BUSES.’
    POEM:
    INTERREGNUM
    THE OLD ORDER (NEO-LIBERALISM) IS DYING.
    AND THE NEW CANNOT YET BE BORN.
    PERHAPS WE ARE ALL BEING TESTED.
    AND ONLY STARS WILL RIDE THE STORM.
    X & Solidarity!

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