Tagged with Polling

Poll shows Corbyn can’t be deposed. Do his critics want Labour to win or not?

A YouGov poll whose findings are published today by the Times shows that the membership of the Labour Party are more supportive of Jeremy Corbyn now than they were in November 2015 and there is no realistic chance of him being removed now or in the foreseeable future. It is time for all his critics to decide, do they want to see him elected Prime Minister or not?

Seventy-two percent of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well as party leader (compared with 66% last November) including 43% of those who voted for Yvette Cooper or Andy Burnham last summer. A majority of members think we’re on course to win in 2020 , and more so with Jeremy as leader than someone else (53:39 compared with 42:41). Continue reading →

Is Labour a campaigning party, or one that follows public opinion?

Vote key on keyboard pollingI had the pleasure of working with Deborah Mattinson during the 1987 and 1992 election campaigns when she undertook qualitative polling for the Labour Party. She was expert in interpreting what could be gleaned from focus groups, and those running the campaign, myself included, always listened attentively to what she had to say.

Politicians always listen carefully to what the pollsters tell them; indeed, it could argued that they are inclined to pay too much attention to poll findings, particularly in the middle of election campaigns when the apparent precision of the figures (if not of the facts behind them) can seem to be the only certain element in an uncertain world. Continue reading →

New YouGov poll shows Corbyn has more support than Burnham & Cooper combined

Labour Leadership Candidates and now they are 4_edited-1A new YouGov poll for the London Standard shows that Jeremy Corbyn “has more support among London public than nearest rivals, Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper, put together“.  Forty-six per cent of Londoners with an opinion thought Jeremy would make the best Labour leader, reports the Standard, compared with 21% for Burnham, 20% for Cooper and 12% for Liz Kendall.

However the detailed tables reveal even more interesting information. Corbyn leads among 2015 Labour voters who express a preference in London by 52% over Cooper on 21%, Burnham on 20% and Kendall on 7%. Continue reading →

Labour lost because it failed to challenge the Tory economic narrative

Balls and OsborneHow does on explain that not one of the 50 or so polls over the last 6 weeks has put either Labour or the Tories outside the range of 260-285 seats, yet at 10pm on election night the BBC issues a shock exit poll which puts the Tories at 316 and Labour at 260?

One reason might be that the Tories late in the campaign successfully ignited English nationalism against the Scots having any sway over government at Westminster, another that the much larger number of undecideds at this election chose at the last moment in their perplexity to play safe and give their vote to maintain the status quo, another is that there is generally a return to the incumbency factor which favours the government at the end of the campaign. But whilst such considerations may have had some influence, they don’t explain the deeper factors which lie at the heart of this shocking turnaround of all the punters’ predictions. Continue reading →

Poll: Blair & Mandelson lead the race to the bottom (in popularity of retired politicians)

BLAIRS RETURN NO THANKSTen days ago, Tony Blair offered to do “what it takes to help Ed Miliband win general election“. Michael Meacher on this site said thanks but we’d be better off without it. Today, a poll carried out by YouGov for the Times confirmed that he’s right. Asked about a number of retired politicians, Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson proved to be more unpopular with voters than all others, providing clear evidence that they are both liabilities in Labour’s campaign. The poll asked:

Thinking about retired politicians playing a role in the current election, do you think getting support from the following politicians would be an asset or a liability for today’s politicians?”

Continue reading →