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Poll demonstrates how little Scottish Labour is trusted to represent Scotland

Scottish Labour at LP conference 2014Yesterday we reported on the Ipsos MORI Scottish poll (for which full tables are now available) showing a 30% swing from Labour to the SNP since the 2010 general election. Today a YouGov poll (detailed tables here) carried out entirely after Johann Lamont’s resignationconfirms the dramatic threat to Labour in Scotland, albeit with a somewhat lower swing (19%). The effect is, according to Electoral Calculus, that Labour would retain 13 seats to 46 for the SNP whereas yesterday’s poll made it 4 to 54, a loss of 28 rather than 37 seats but still bad enough to ensure that Labour was incapable of winning the general election.

The tables reveal more. Ipsos/MORI which enables more analysis by social characteristics. This confirms what we suspected – that Labour is doing worst amongst the young especially the 25 – 34 group (14% Labour compared with 23% for the whole population), amongst part-time workers (17% Labour) and those not working (18%), amongst people with children (16%) and worst of all amongst the most deprived (17%). We do best (but still badly) amongst the retired (28%). and those aged 55+ (29%).

The YouGov poll shows the SNP (43% overall in this poll) are doing best amongst 24-39 (48%) and 40-59 (45%), and amongst C2DEs (48%) but most importantly it enables comparison with previous elections. Although the table shows there has been quite a bit of churn in all directions between parties since 2010, the SNP has benefitted from attracting 42% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 and 32% of those who voted Labour.

[table id=32 /]

The biggest problem of all is that SNP supporters simply don’t trust the Scottish Labour Party even though over half of them (and even more according to Ipsos-MORI) didn’t vote for them in 2010. Ninety-one percent of SNP supporters say the Scottish Labour Party represents the views and interests of Scotland either fairly badly (32%) or very badly (59%). They don’t trust Jim Murphy (say 78%, 63% “not at all”) and Gordon Brown even less (though Gordon is trusted significantly more by Labour and all other voters). Ed Miliband does worse with Labour members, however – not trusted by 51%.

3 Comments

  1. Political Tourist says:

    Scary stuff……..if your a Labour MP

  2. David Pavett says:

    The SNP will be praying for Murphy to get the job. He would be the kiss of death for Scottish Labour. He is a Blairite’s Blairite and could only deepen the gulf between Labour and the desire if the majority of the Scottish electorate for real bite in favour of the great majority rather than being based on placating big business. Unless Scottish Labour moves to the left SNP populist rhetoric will continue to sound more attractive than Labour’s thin gruel of “one nation” and “responsible capitalism”. Murphy as leader could only help to propel Scotland to independence.

    1. Robert says:

      They do have Blair-rites in Scotland the middle class upper middle class who cannot get a Tory MP, may well see Murphy as the answer a Blair-rite Progress drone of the Labour third way Tory Lite party.

      All it takes now is for the working class in Scotland to do what normally do with elections like this and stay away from the voting booths and Murphy will walk it.

      Make no mistake this election will be about who has the best banter and Murphy is a very good politician his style will get a lot of supporters and if he does win then sadly Progress will have it’s first foot on the ladder of a take over.

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