Mark Ferguson at Labour List reports today that “credible reports suggest that in future a leadership candidate will need to secure the support of 25% of MPs to get onto the ballot paper rather than the previous figure of 12.5%.” By my estimation (see below), had there always been a 25% threshold for valid nominations by MPs, there would only have been three or four contested elections for leader in the history of the Labour party — in 1922, in 1963 (though George Brown would have won), in 2010 (just) and possibly in 1976 (if not, Michael Foot would have become leader unopposed). Although it is mathematically possible to have three candidates in a contest with a 25% threshold but no more, even these contests would have been only two-way.
We have had the recent experience of the “coronation” of Gordon Brown. It was not a happy one, and it served neither the party nor Gordon himself well, though he was himself in large part responsible. The fact that he had never faced a contest undermined his authority and allowed Blairites to repeatedly threaten to challenge him though they never really had the numbers to pull it off. It is not worth risking more coronations and it is therefore vital to resist any significant increase to the current 12.5% threshold where there are vacancies. Continue reading →