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New poll points way to Syriza-led Greek government after new election

A new poll by Marc for Alpha TV in Greece puts left coalition Syriza in first place with 23%, up 6% from the result last Sunday. The poll asked how respondents would have voted had they known the result. Syriza gained support from across the board, 18% of those who voted at the weekend for the Greek Communist Party (KKE) and 16% from neo-fascist New Dawn, according to the poll (although these precise figures will be subject to fairly wide margins of error). If this result were to be repeated in the new election which is bound to happen within a few months, Syriza would win 120 seats and be in a much stronger position to form a government. The full results were as follows:

Votes 2012 Seats Poll results Projected Seats
New Democracy (Conservative) 18.9 108 19.1 59
Syriza (Radical Left) 16.8 52 22.7 120
Pasok (Soc Dem) 13.2 41 12.2 37
Ind Greeks (Nationalist – ND split) 10.6 33 10.2 31
KKE (Communist) 8.5 26 6.8 21
Golden Dawn (Fascist) 7 21 5.7 17
Democratic Left (Syriza split + Pasok defectors) 6.1 19 4.9 15

Of course, much is bound to happen between now and a new election. Firstly there is the possibility of further realignments on the Left. Of those parties who failed to reach the 3% threshold to get parliamentary representation, Social Pact (KOISY) led by former PASOK minister, Louka Katseli, is already talking about joining the Syriza coalition. However, they got ust under 1% of the vote although they had 8 MPs prior to the election. The Greens (on 3% last weekend) and Antarsya (Anti-capitalists on 1.2%) are also possibilities. Although these parties are not significant in terms of forming a government, they could be in terms of ensuring that Syriza achieves first place, ahead of New Democracy. Nevertheless, one should not underestimate the difficulties in persuading Democratic Left and especially the Greek Communist Party to join a coalition. The parties have significant differences in the approaches to the EU, the Euro, and austerity, and deep long-standing resentments rooted in earlier splits. However, in the current circumstances, the increasing likelihood that Greece will be forced out of the Euro even before any new election and the likelihood of defections of popular support to Syriza in the absence of better relations will put pressure on the smaller parties. Nor should one rule out further realignment on the Right. New Democracy, who in reality are not supporters of the austerity policies forced on Greece by the EU, favouring policies even more severe, will be keen to protect their lead and the 50 bonus seats, and there are smaller parties on the right, some of which result from previous splits. Furthermore, PASOK’s likely direction (once it concludes its current attempt to form a coalition) is uncertain. It expelled a number of dissenters in the last parliament – is it set for further decline or a change of direction? At present, however, it is clearly the primary internal object of blame for the current state of Grece.

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